Instructor

* wperkins3@math.gatech.edu*

Office: Skiles 017

Office Hours: Tues. 3:00 - 4:00pm and Thurs. 9:00 - 10:00 am

Assignments

- Homework every other week
- Short, easy quizzes at random
- Midterm 1: February 16
- Midterm 2: April 3
- Optional project
- Final Exam: May 1

References

Books

- Grimmett and Stirzaker Probability and Random Processes
- Hogg and Tannis Probability and Statistical Inference

Course Notes

Interesting Articles

Schedule

- Jan. 10 Course basics; What is probability? What is statistics? Probability models. Handout
- Outcomes, events, and probabilities
- Jan. 12Set theory and Venn diagrams. Handout
- Wikipedia on basics of set theory
- Quiz 1
- Jan. 17 Cards, Coins, and Counting. Handout
- Homework 1, due January 19. answers
- Jan. 19 Conditional Probability Handout
- Jan. 24 Bayes' Formula and Applications Handout
- Homework 2, due February 2.
- Jan. 26 Independence Handout
- Quiz 2
- Jan. 31 Random Variables Handout
- Feb. 2 The statistical method, Hypothesis Testing Handout
- Feb. 7 Expectation and variance Handout
- Quiz 3
- Homework 3, due February 14.
- Feb. 9 Chebyshev's Inequality; Law of Large Numbers Handout
- Sample midterm questions (updated with answers now)
- Feb. 14 Review of discrete probability
- Feb. 16 Midterm 1
- Feb. 21 Continuous distributions and density functions Handout
- Homework 4, due March 1. answers
- Feb. 23 CDF's Handout
- Feb. 28 Joint distributions, marginal distributions Handout
- Mar. 1 Poisson, Binomial, and Normal Distributions Handout
- Mar. 6 Poisson approximation, Normal Approximation Handout
- Mar. 8 more Central Limit Theorem Handout
- Mar. 13 Parameter Estimation Handout
- Mar. 15 Confidence Intervals Handout
- Homework 5, due March 29. answers
- Mar. 27 More Confidence Intervals Handout
- Mar. 29 Review of continuous distributions, CLT
- Midterm 2 Topics
- Midterm 2 Sample Questions
- Apr. 3 Midterm 2
- Midterm 2 Answers
- Apr. 5 Chi Square distribution Handout
- Apr. 10 Goodness-of-fit testing Handout
- Apr. 12 Regression + a Quiz Handout
- Apr. 17 More Topics in statistics Handout
- Homework 6, not to turn in.
- Apr. 19 More topics in probability Handout
- Apr. 24 Review of Probability
- Apr. 26 Review of Statistics
- May 1 Final Exam, 11:30 am
- Topics for the Final Exam
- Sample Questions for the Final Exam

Course Information
#### Main Topics of the Course:

#### Textbook:

Hogg and Tannis, *Probability and Statistical Inference *.
We’ll cover (parts of) chapters 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7. The textbook will be useful as a reference but will not be absolutely necessary. You will probably be just fine relying on class notes and an occasional visit to the library.
### Course Requirements & Policies:

### Grading:

#### A twist on grading:

Instead of reporting your grade on a test or quiz as simply a letter or a number, I want to give you more information about how you did and what you know. I will divide your grade on an exam into the following categories:

- Basic Probability
- The Statistical Method
- Expectation and Variance
- Law of Large Numbers and the Central Limit Theorem
- Hypothesis Testing and Confidence Intervals

- Homework (15%)
We will have 1 homework every 2 weeks. I'll grade it on a scale of 0-5, mainly checking that you did it and checking the correctness of one or two randomly chosen problems. I encourage you to work together on the homework, but each person must submit his/her own written work. You must also write on the first page the names of the other students you worked with. The homework is due at the beginning of class the day it is due. If you will not be at class, you can bring your homework by my office the day before.

- Quizzes (20%)
There will be roughly 2 short (and easy) quizzes every 3 weeks. They'll have one or two questions only, mainly to make sure you are keeping up with the work and following along. These will only take 5 minutes and be graded on a scale of 0-5. I will drop your three lowest quiz grades, but there will be no makeups. This should be an easy way to improve your grade, and won't require any studying beyond having come to the previous classes (and stayed awake).

- Midterms (30% in total)
We will have have two midterms, in-class on February 16 and April 3.

- Project
The project is a chance for you to work in more depth on any topic that interests you. I'll put a list of possible projects on the class webpage, but you are enocuraged to come up with one of your own. You must notify me by March 8 if you want to do a project, and meet with me for approval on your choice of topic.

- Final Exam (35%)
The final will take place during the scheduled time (May 1, 11:30 am) and cover all of the material from the class.

- A link to Georgia Tech's honor code (please read it)

- Option 1: No project, coursework (homework, quizzes, midterms, final) worth 100%
- Option 2: Project worth 30% of your grade, coursework worth 70%

- knowledge of the basic terms and definitions
- understanding of basic probability
- understanding of the statistical method
- creativity and ability to solve difficult problems
- ability to apply probability and statistics to real questions and problems
- Calculations

- 20% definitions
- 30% basic probability
- 15% statistical method
- 15% difficult problems
- 20% applying probability to real problems